For the better part of this year, you have likely heard from us that we believe the tide is turning, and the next decade will look a lot different than the past decade. For the past 40 years, interest rates steadily declined, marking an era in financial history. After...
Q3 Review September and October were categorized by a significant rise in the 10-year Treasury Bond yield, rising from 4.26 to a high of just under 5%. Rising yields are driven by the actions of the Federal Reserve Board, and they have been increasing interest...
Recap and Outlook After declining sharply for most of 2022, the S&P 500 ended the year at 3,840. As the year turned, it seemed as if the economy might well be in a no-win situation. Either the Federal Reserve would tighten credit conditions enough to stamp out...
Some January economic data continuous to be weak and point towards a possible recession, namely: retail sales, ISM (below 50) or new home sales. Yet employment data (both unemployment and job gains – especially the recent nonfarm payroll data) or delinquencies...
Average Hourly Earnings rose 0.6% MoM in November notably above the consensus forecast of 0.3% – elevated wage pressures could lead the FED to raise rates to higher levels than investors anticipate (above 5%). New York (NY) FED recession probability model in...
